Prepared by Glary NZ Market Insights
Market Overview
China’s imported softwood log market entered the National Day holiday period with a firmer supply-demand balance. Weekly market estimates put total imported log inventory at about 2.5 million m³, including roughly 2.1 million m³ of New Zealand Radiata Pine. Daily log offtake remained close to 59,000m³. Stocks declined from the preceding week, reversing the modest increase reported in mid-September.
Lower inventory and steady consumption have supported sentiment, but they have not produced another broad rise in selling prices. Regional competition, more normal port operations and subdued construction-related orders are limiting near-term upside. China’s log market is therefore firm, though price gains increasingly depend on demand from processors rather than supply constraints alone.
China: Lower Stocks, Different Regional Signals
Radiata Pine stocks have fluctuated through September while daily consumption has gradually improved. The latest decline in inventory is constructive because it occurred alongside regular port arrivals and offtake approaching 60,000m³ per day. Different surveys may use different port coverage, so the direction of change is more useful than any single headline estimate.
In the Yangtze River Delta, indicative prices for commonly traded Radiata Pine grades were broadly stable around RMB810–820/m³. Taicang has resumed simultaneous discharge at three log berths, allowing cargoes to move through the port more efficiently. Prices have held despite that improvement in capacity, suggesting underlying support from consumption.
Conditions are less uniform in nearby markets. Sawmill orders in Jiangdu and Xinminzhou remain softer, creating competition between regional suppliers. As port logistics normalise, further price increases in Taicang will need stronger downstream orders.
Shandong’s earlier rally in longer-length and furniture-grade Radiata Pine has also lost momentum. Lanshan indications eased by about RMB10/m³ during the week. Suitable furniture-grade logs still command a premium, but slower furniture demand suggests that this segment may be near a short-term price peak. The contrast with construction grades illustrates why China should be assessed by port, quality and end use.
New Zealand Radiata Pine Export Market
Mainstream New Zealand Radiata Pine business to China remained around the US$130/JAS CFR area, with individual offers varying by specification and shipment timing. These are market indications rather than quotations for a particular cargo.
Lower Chinese inventories and steady offtake provide support, while a softer New Zealand dollar has helped offset some export pressure. Freight, harvesting conditions and domestic processing demand continue to influence availability. Chinese buyers, however, remain sensitive to additional raw-material price increases, particularly where finished-product margins are narrow.
China’s property sector remains weak, but imported log consumption is supported by a broader mix of manufacturing uses. Furniture components, packaging, mouldings, finger-jointed products and panels all contribute alongside construction. This is a different kind of seasonal market from a conventional property-led peak.
India: Diversification With Distinct Freight Economics
India is an increasingly important secondary destination for New Zealand logs and will be part of Glary NZ’s regular market coverage. Kandla demand appears steady, although delivered prices should not be compared with China without accounting for the different freight environment. Vessel availability and shipping cost remain central to the route’s competitiveness.
The New Zealand–India Free Trade Agreement was ratified on 21 September and is scheduled to enter into force on 20 October 2026. Its implementation will be an important development to watch for forestry and wood-product trade, alongside demand and freight conditions.
Southeast Asia: Demand Follows End Use
Vietnam remains the leading Southeast Asian market for New Zealand Radiata Pine, particularly for moulding and further processing. Thailand presents a broader mix of applications in packaging, pallets, plywood and flooring.
Indonesia and the Philippines remain markets to watch for plywood and panel production. Malaysia has a substantial panel industry, although additional treatment and import requirements add complexity for log shipments. Cambodia is an emerging processing market with opportunities in moulding, plywood and flooring. Across the region, species, grade and shipment specifications need to match each processing chain rather than a single regional demand trend.
Outlook
China enters October with relatively low log inventory and consumption close to 60,000m³ per day. The main question after the National Day holiday is whether that level of offtake continues as vessel arrivals normalise. Sustained consumption and further inventory declines would strengthen the case for higher prices later in October. Softer offtake would be more likely to leave prices consolidating.
Overall market tone: fundamentally stable, with healthy consumption but limited room for immediate price gains without stronger downstream orders.
This Website Edition is general market commentary based on information available on 27 September 2026. Inventory and price figures are indicative market estimates, not offers. Conditions may change. For current availability, contact Glary NZ.