Prepared by Glary NZ Market Insights
Market Overview
New Zealand Radiata Pine export offers remain firm, while Chinese buyers continue to respond selectively. Shandong and Jiangsu are moving in different directions, reflecting local availability, grade requirements and processors’ ability to pass raw-material costs through to finished products.
The central question for the coming weeks is whether stronger export expectations can translate into sustained business. Low surveyed inventories provide support, but slower port offtake and uneven downstream orders limit the case for a broad price recovery.
China: Regional Prices Diverge
Mysteel’s 10–16 October market report recorded Rizhao’s 3.9m medium A-grade Radiata Pine at RMB830/m³, up about 1.2% on the week, while Taicang’s 4m medium A-grade was around RMB820/m³, down about 0.6%. These port references relate to specific commercial grades and lengths; they are not interchangeable benchmarks for every cargo.
Shandong’s firmer tone reflects tighter availability in selected specifications and demand from particular processing segments. Jiangsu remains more constrained by finished-product pricing and competition between nearby supply centres. A stronger price at one port does not establish stronger demand across China.
The latest clearly dated Mysteel inventory figures used in this edition put softwood log inventories at 2.38 million m³ on 9 October. Average daily softwood log offtake across 13 ports in seven provinces was approximately 60,100m³ during 5–11 October, down 8.24% from the previous survey period. Offtake measures port withdrawals, rather than nationwide end consumption, and these figures should not be presented as a 16 October inventory or demand reading.
New Zealand: Offers Need Buyer Acceptance
Published October Radiata Pine offers to China remain in the US$132–137/JAS CFR range. This is an offer range, not a uniform range of completed transactions. Grades, shipment dates and cargo composition continue to affect actual outcomes.
Shipping schedules also require careful interpretation. A recovery in departures can reflect delayed vessels clearing rather than a new rise in underlying demand. Forecast arrivals should therefore be checked against completed unloading and subsequent port withdrawals before drawing conclusions about supply pressure.
Freight remains voyage-specific. Loading and discharge combinations, vessel availability and timing can produce materially different quotations. A rate observed for one configuration should not be applied to every New Zealand–China shipment. Currency movements add another variable to delivered-cost comparisons.
Southeast Asia: Follow the Processing Requirement
Our assessment remains that Southeast Asian opportunities are best evaluated by factory capability and end use. Growth in furniture or panel exports does not translate automatically into equivalent growth in imported log demand: local plantation species, imported sawn products and changes in manufacturing methods can all meet part of that demand.
Vietnam remains an important market for Radiata Pine mouldings, furniture components and further processing. Packaging and panel applications require separate comparisons of usable recovery, drying performance and delivered cost. Stable production requirements provide a stronger basis for supply planning than headline export growth alone.
Thailand offers specialised applications in higher-grade packaging, pallets, plywood and flooring. Radiata Pine and eucalyptus serve different processing needs, so material selection should follow the finished product and the mill’s equipment.
Malaysia requires particular attention to import preparation and processing economics. New Zealand MPI’s Malaysia guidance is the relevant starting point for checking forestry-product requirements. Import permits, applicable treatments and inland logistics should be confirmed for the proposed shipment.
Indonesia and Cambodia are best assessed through identifiable processing projects. Existing equipment, product specifications, lawful raw-material sourcing and confirmed production plans matter more than announced capacity alone. Trials can help establish whether imported Radiata Pine or eucalyptus meets a factory’s recovery and quality requirements.
Trade Policy and Traceability
Vietnam and the European Free Trade Association signed their free trade agreement on 18 October. Entry into force remains pending. The agreement creates a potential longer-term route for export diversification, but businesses should not assume that signing immediately changes the tariff treatment of a shipment.
US plywood trade measures also require product-level analysis. The USITC’s August final determinations were affirmative for hardwood and decorative plywood from China, Indonesia and Vietnam, excluding all softwood structural plywood. These findings do not apply to every panel product or to Radiata Pine logs. Buyers should verify the applicable scope and origin before calculating duties.
The EU’s published EUDR timetable sets 30 December 2026 for the main obligations, with 30 June 2027 available to qualifying micro and small operators. The later date does not apply to products already covered by the EU Timber Regulation. Traceability, legality and the relevant due-diligence requirements must be checked for each supply chain; plantation origin or certification alone does not establish compliance.
Outlook
Our base case for the next one to four weeks is continued firm New Zealand offers alongside selective Chinese purchasing and persistent regional differences. Sustained offtake and stronger finished-product orders would support prices; faster arrivals without matching withdrawals would increase pressure on local stocks.
The most useful indicators remain actual transactions by specification, consistently measured inventories, completed unloading and port withdrawals. In Southeast Asia, processing suitability and product-specific trade access should remain central to purchasing decisions.
This Website Edition is general market commentary based on information available on 18 October 2026. Prices are indicative and are not offers from Glary NZ. For current availability and specifications, contact Glary NZ.
Sources and Further Reading
- Mysteel: Weekly log market, 10–16 October
- Mysteel: Softwood log inventories, 9 October
- Mysteel: Port offtake, 5–11 October
- Mysteel: October Radiata Pine CFR offers
- EFTA: Vietnam free trade agreement
- USITC: Final plywood injury determinations
- European Commission: EUDR roles and timetable