Radiata Pine Log Market Insights

Asia-Pacific Timber Market Weekly — 1 November 2026

China’s log market remains uneven as New Zealand shipping encounters temporary weather disruption. Across Southeast Asia, processors face a growing divide between end-market opportunities and compliance costs.

China: regional prices and cautious sawmill demand

New Zealand radiata pine continued to trade in a narrowly balanced Chinese market during the week ending 30 October. Published spot assessments showed stable quotations at Taicang and Xinminzhou, while Rizhao in Shandong retained a premium for some larger or better-quality logs. The price difference reflects log quality, regional manufacturing demand, customs inspections and available cargoes, rather than a uniform recovery in construction demand.

On 30 October, four-metre medium A radiata pine was quoted near RMB810 per cubic metre at Taicang, compared with RMB800 for the same nominal length at Xinminzhou. Rizhao’s 3.9-metre medium A assessment was around RMB830 and its 5.9-metre equivalent about RMB850. These are indicative port quotations, not guaranteed transactions, and specifications may differ between operators.

A published 13-port survey recorded radiata pine stocks of 1.78 million cubic metres on 9 October, 1.70 million on 16 October and 1.60 million on 23 October. Total surveyed softwood log stocks declined from 2.38 million to 2.25 million cubic metres over those two weeks. Average daily softwood log offtake nevertheless eased from approximately 69,500 cubic metres during 12–18 October to 67,800 during 19–25 October. These dated survey figures should not be treated as current nationwide inventory or end consumption.

Inspection and fumigation requirements have supported selected Shandong prices, while availability in neighbouring ports has limited upside in Taicang. Actual cleared, saleable volumes and sawmill activity remain more informative than vessel arrival forecasts alone.

New Zealand: weather disrupts a week, not necessarily a season

New Zealand’s 12 principal export ports shipped about 380,000 cubic metres of logs on 10 vessels during 23–29 October, down from approximately 510,000 cubic metres on 13 vessels a week earlier. The decline was associated with severe wind and rain affecting South Island port operations. Over a longer four-week period, reported shipments were higher than the corresponding previous-month period. A weak shipping week should not be mistaken for a sustained decline in harvesting capacity.

The latest verified October radiata pine CFR China offer range remained US$132–137 per JAS cubic metre. A confirmed November market-wide transaction range was not available at the report cutoff. Indicative early-November bulk freight was around US$46 per JAS cubic metre, subject to voyage configuration and timing. Historical quarterly FOB statistics and older AWG references should not be presented as current at-wharf purchase prices.

Exchange rates offered exporters some relief. Reserve Bank of New Zealand reference data showed NZD/USD declining from 0.56890 on 23 October to 0.56285 on 30 October. For USD-denominated sales against NZD-denominated procurement, a lower NZD increases local-currency proceeds before expenses and hedging effects.

China’s wider demand signals remain cautious

China’s October official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined to 49.3 from 50.1 in September, with production and new orders below the expansion threshold. Property development investment fell 20.6% year on year in January–September, while new construction starts fell 24.9%. Selected manufacturing uses of logs remain more resilient than construction-related demand.

China’s log futures benchmark transitioned to the January 2027 contract, which closed near RMB800 on 30 October. Futures and physical port quotations are not directly interchangeable because specifications and delivery terms differ.

Southeast Asia: processing requirements shape opportunities

Vietnam remains an important processing market for imported radiata pine, including mouldings, furniture components, industrial packaging and selected panel applications. Wood and wood-product exports were approximately US$13.3 billion in the first nine months of 2026, with shipments to China expanding substantially. Furniture, plywood, chips and processed wood have different raw-material requirements, however, and export value does not measure imported log demand.

Trade diversification and market-access rules continue to influence regional manufacturing. Tariff benefits depend on entry into force, product schedules and rules of origin. US trade remedies affecting certain hardwood and decorative plywood imports require product- and producer-level checks; they should not be generalised to every structural plywood product.

Thailand offers targeted opportunities in higher-grade packaging, pallets, plywood and flooring, where rubberwood, domestic eucalypt and imported pine compete according to application. Malaysia has an established furniture and panel sector, but import permits, phytosanitary treatments and related costs influence log competitiveness. Indonesia’s domestic plantation resources favour specialised import opportunities, while Cambodia’s processing sector should be assessed through operational factory capacity.

Traceability and the next four weeks

The EU Deforestation Regulation is scheduled to apply from 30 December 2026 for most operators, and from 30 June 2027 for qualifying micro and small operators. Suppliers serving EU-bound manufacturing chains should prepare legal-harvest documentation, traceable source locations and batch-level supply records.

Over the next month, the main signals will be consistent port-inventory surveys, actual cleared arrivals, sawmill offtake and the independent movement of procurement costs, freight and currencies. Product specifications, destination-port costs and established factory demand remain central to assessing market conditions.

This public edition reflects information available by 1 November 2026. Prices are indicative, not transaction guarantees. Confidential customer information, supplier quotations and unpublished source data are excluded.

Sources and Further Reading

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